CHRISTMAS AND OBAMAA THEORY OF CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN  I hope this finds you well at this festive time and the changing of the year. With a few days break from the news of recent months, for me it is also a time of reflection on where in the world we, and the world, are going. And reflecting on all that happened in 2008 - what about this “change we can believe in?”

A lot of the changes lately have been for the worse given the financial meltdown and for those who Stephen Colbert describes as putting a little too much faith in “Moneytheism”. Evidence is also mounting that for those invested in acting on climate change, reaching the Millennium Development Goals, or building networks of trust and collaboration, the changes have been for the worse locally and globally.

And yet as at this time of year when it is better than to light a candle than curse the darkness, there are detectable signs in our deeper selves of changes for the better. In a dark time,some say, the eye begins to see.

I am not entirely sure why our increasingly secular and post-modern culture continues to embrace the symbols of Christmas. Nor am I sure why 53% of Americans and 80% of the rest of the world embrace the audacious hope articulated by Barack Hussein Obama. At some level there must remain the pious hopes for the long-awaited messiah who somehow will singlehandedly, heroically fix all ills. Or perhaps it is just the good old bandwagon effect at work.

But at the core of the Christmas message and the Obama election is the deeply human response to a theory of change that lights and lifts our better selves.

As we offered up last week our Whistler rendition ofA Christmas Carolreading with the CBC, Scrooge, Marley and all the spirits – we were reminded again that the Christmas story in Dickens narrative, past, present and future, is fundamentally about change and transformation. And in the many attempts to parse Obama’s change message, several pundits last year, notablyMark Schmitt, wrote that the community organizer’s descriptive and tactical theory of change both rivalled Clinton’s and Edwards’, and would win the hearts and minds.

“Theory of change” is a phrase that many in the non-profit sector are using to draw out underlying assumptions of what is most effective. I came across it this past year in my friend Paul Born’s new book Creating Vibrant Communities. He describes how as grassroots groups form to address particular community issues, they work together to develop their theory of change story. It is right up there with their vision and mission statements.

But in the various theories of how change occurs and the public discourse we need on them, the core message in the Christmas and the Obama theory of change that I see is this: Real change for the better relies on good faith and bringing the Other (as in Christmas) into the stable, or (as with Obama) to the table. Whether the “Other” are rural peasants, ordinary working shepherds, wise ones travelling along on their orthodox ways, animal rights activists or choirs of astrophysicists, the Christmas story - inclusive, vulnerable and bold - got them all under the same roof. And things began to change. Darkness was lightened, generosity enhanced, cynicism humbled and good faith renewed.

President-elect Obama and those around him have a mastery of social marketing, policy and communication skills. But as a community organizer he instinctively knows how to bring others into the “stable” and sit together around the table. Schmitt contrasts this decisively against the Clintonesque “just work hard against all the odds” theory, and the Edwards “just demand it and force it through” theory.
As Michael Tomasky describes it inhis reviewof The Audacity of Hope, "The chapters boil down to a pattern: here's what the right believes about subject X, and here's what the left believes; and while I basically side with the left, I think the right has a point or two that we should consider, and the left can sometimes get a little carried away."

So will this “bringing-the-Other-to-the- table” theory of change hold up? After the Christmas ornaments are put away and the Inaugural balls are over, will we see again the forces of change that use coercion, manipulation and powerplays?

What theory of change do you believe in, and what will you work for in 2009?

For my part and for the love of my three children, my family, friends and the many worlds on this Earth I live in - I believe in good faith that the core change message of Christmas and Obama will hold up, and will work by grace to live it out in the changing of days ahead. And I look forward to the opportunities of working together with you.

With all good wishes for you and those you love.                                             


William Roberts
President, The Whistler Forum for Leadership and Dialogue

December 2008